DEUTSCHE BANK E' LA PROSSIMA LEHMAN???

In settimana vi abbiamo ricordato che la capitalizzazione di Deutsche bank è di circa 39 miliardi, ovvero la stessa di UNICREDIT e ben lontana dalla capitalizzazione di BANCA INTESA..

Oggi vi mostriamo due grafici interessanti...negli ultimi due anni la banca tedesca ha nettamente sottoperformato l'indice tedesco (quasi un 60%) e se il grafico fosse a 5 anni..la situazione sarebbe ben piu' grave (oltre il 120%) 

Il secondo grafico mostra la sottoperformance di DEUTSCHE BANK nei confronti di Banca Intesa..anche in questo caso il grafico parla da solo...la differenza è di oltre 160%..eppure l'italia è malata, le industrie italiane sono in difficolta, l'immobiliare è in difficolta'...e i crediti incagliati non parliamone...

E' MOLTO EVIDENTE CHE QUALCOSA NON VA IN DEUTSCHE BANK...QUESTA BANCA VIVE NELLA ZONA PIU' RICCA DELL'EUROPA, E' CIRCONDATA DA AZIENDE SANE E IN FORMA...EPPURE NON RIESCE A FARE PROFITTI....L'ESPOSIZIONE DELLA BANCA E' INCREDIBILE E SEMBRA PROPRIO ESSERE IL CANCRO DELLA GERMANIA..IL TALLONE DI ACHILLE.....CHE PER IL BENE DELL'ITALIA...SAREBBE IL CASO CHE QUALCUNO PRIMA O DOPO LO COLPISCA....

LEGGETE LE STRANE COSE CAPITATE NEGLI ULTIMI 13 MESI ALLA BANCA PRINCIPALE TEDESCA...

• In April of 2014,  Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure.  Why?
• 1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount.   Why again?  It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media.  The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity.  Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
• Fast forwarding to March of this year:   Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
• In April,  Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR.   The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ.  (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime). 
• In May,  one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authorityby the board of directors.  We guess that this is a “crisis move”.  In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
• June 5:  Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF.   The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute.   This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
• June 6/7:  (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company.  (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers).   Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June.  Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
• June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+  Just three notches above “junk”.  (Incidentally,  BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)

The trouble for Deutsche Bank is that it’s conventional retail banking operations are not a significant profit center.  To maintain margins, Deutsche Bank has been forced into riskier asset classes than it’s peers.

Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP.    Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.

With that kind of exposure, relatively small moves can precipitate catastrophic losses.   Again, we must note that Greece just missed it’s payment to the IMF – and further defaults are most certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.

Fonte: qui